Summary of the performance of new forces in the first half of the year, Hongmeng

tech | 2024-08-24

Now, new energy vehicle (NEV) manufacturers are more proactive in announcing their monthly sales performance. As of July 3rd, more than ten NEV manufacturers have released their June sales figures. Overall, the same and sequential data look very impressive, with many manufacturers setting new historical highs for monthly deliveries.

The new energy vehicle market has once again demonstrated its unstoppable growth momentum. Data from the Passenger Car Association shows that, based on preliminary monthly data and comprehensive estimates, the wholesale sales of new energy passenger cars nationwide in June reached 970,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 28% and a sequential increase of 8%.

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However, the "mid-term exam" assesses not only the absolute value of sales but also the completion rate of the annual sales target. For some new force manufacturers, they will need to work even harder in the second half of the year.

01

BYD

BYD's sales in June were 341,700 units, a year-on-year increase of 35%, setting a new historical high. This is also the fourth consecutive month that BYD's monthly sales have exceeded 300,000 units.- In this period, the sales of pure electric vehicles reached 145,200 units, while plug-in hybrid vehicles sold 195,000 units;

- The sales of new energy commercial vehicles were 1,447 units, a year-on-year decrease of 21.91%;

- In terms of brands, the Dynasty Network + Ocean Network sold 324,800 units, a year-on-year increase of 35.0%; Denza sold 12,300 units, a year-on-year increase of 11%; Equation Leopard sold 2,700 units; Yangwang sold 418 units;

- In the first half of the year, BYD's cumulative sales reached 1.613 million units, a year-on-year increase of 28%;

- The annual sales target completion rate is 44.7%.【Commentary】

The growth rate of BYD's plug-in hybrid vehicles aligns with the strategies of many manufacturers at present. Previously, there have been speculations that plug-in hybrids may experience an explosion in demand, as the focus shifts away from the intense competition in pure electric vehicles.

Amidst the overall rapid growth, the decline in commercial vehicles is more conspicuous. Once upon a time, BYD's commercial vehicles and buses were the cash cows for BYD's profits, but now the times have changed, and they can no longer keep up with the development in the passenger car sector.

Furthermore, BYD sold 27,000 new energy passenger cars overseas in June, with a total installation of new energy power batteries and energy storage batteries reaching 16.101 GWh, and a cumulative total installation of 72.555 GWh. Currently, BYD has entered multiple countries and regions including Japan, Germany, Australia, Brazil, and the United Arab Emirates. The first overseas passenger car production base in Thailand has been established, and plans are underway for two major new energy vehicle manufacturing bases in Brazil and Hungary.

In late June, the first batch of mass-produced new energy vehicles, the Song PLUS DM-i Champion Edition, also officially rolled off the production line at BYD's factory in Uzbekistan. The first phase of this factory is planned to produce two plug-in hybrid models, with an expected annual capacity of 50,000 vehicles to meet the market demand in Central Asia. It can be seen that BYD's layout in overseas markets is expanding step by step, and it is possible that the growth in overseas markets will bring greater profits to BYD in the future.BYD's current goal is particularly ambitious, aiming to reach a million vehicles in the next few years, but it seems far from being achieved at present.

02

Changan Automobile

In June, Changan Automobile's self-branded new energy vehicle sales reached 64,000 units, a year-on-year increase of over 61%; from January to June 2024, the cumulative sales amounted to 299,000 units, a year-on-year increase of over 69%.

- Among them, Changan Qiyuan delivered 72,968 units from January to June;

- In terms of Deep Blue Automobile, it delivered a cumulative 83,858 units from January to June;

- AITO delivered a total of 4,682 units in June, a year-on-year increase of 167%.03

Tesla

According to data from the China Passenger Car Association, Tesla China's wholesale volume in June was 71,000 units, a month-on-month increase of 7%, and the domestic sales volume in the second quarter rose by 10.2% compared to the previous quarter.

【Commentary】

On July 1st, before the sales figures were announced, Tesla launched a new financial incentive plan of "zero interest for five years". From July 1st (inclusive) to July 31st (inclusive), customers who place orders for specified versions of the Model Y and Model 3 can apply for this discount.

Compared to Tesla's previous standard annual interest rate of 2.5%, this preferential policy can save consumers more than 20,000 yuan in interest expenses, which essentially equates to an indirect reduction in the vehicle's price.This move may be due to Tesla's anticipation of increased competition in the domestic new energy vehicle market in the coming period, and it is making plans in advance. In fact, against the backdrop of the "price war" in the domestic new energy vehicle market, Tesla also has to "follow local customs" and has lowered prices multiple times to maintain the growth trend of sales volume.

04

Li Auto

In June, Li Auto delivered 47,774 new vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 46.7%. As of June 30, 2024, the cumulative delivery volume reached 822,345 units, ranking first in the total delivery volume of new Chinese brands.

- Among them, the delivery volume of Li Auto L6 in June broke through 20,000 units;

- Annual sales target completion rate: 34%【Review】

Based on the June sales data, the Li Auto L6 has already taken a dominant position, with monthly sales around 20,000 units. However, the sales of the L6 have also suppressed the Li Auto L7, and the more significant drop is the previously mainstay Li Auto L8. This may also reflect a shift in the consumption mindset of the domestic middle class.

According to current sales data forecasts, if Li Auto achieves an average monthly sales volume of 40,000 units in the second half of the year, the annual sales would be around 420,000 units, a target that is likely to be unsatisfactory to the capital market. Therefore, it is expected that Li Auto will increase product sales support in the second half of the year, aiming to raise monthly sales to 50,000 units, so that the annual sales could reach a scale of 500,000 units, and the cumulative delivery will break through the milestone of one million units this year.

05

HarmonyOS Smart Driving

HarmonyOS Smart Driving system delivered a total of 46,141 units in June; the first half of the year cumulative delivery reached 194,207 units, securing the title of the top new force in sales for the first half of the year.【Review】

In terms of sales volume, Hongmeng Zhixing's 194,207 units exceeded Li Auto's 188,981 units by 5,226 units, which is essentially the same as the sales volume of the Zhijie S7. However, in June's sales data, Hongmeng Zhixing still did not surpass Li Auto.

Specifically, the Wenjie M9, with an average price of 500,000 yuan, sold 17,241 units, becoming the best-selling model in the Chinese automobile market with a price tag above 500,000 yuan for the month.

Within the Hongmeng Zhixing system, the top-selling model remains the Wenjie M7, with a monthly sales volume of 18,493 units. This is a decline from the previous monthly sales figures of over 30,000, but it is still the best-selling single product among new forces in the first half of the year.

After the delivery of the new Wenjie M5 began, the sales volume of individual cars also reached 7,046 units, and the delivery has exceeded ten thousand, which can be considered as reigniting the sales momentum for the Wenjie M5.As for the Smart S7, its sales in June have returned to 2,995 units, which is much better than the situation with the Chery Star Genesis ES, so there is no need for Chery to compete.

Next, it remains to be seen whether the Enjoy S9 can break the "luxury pure electric sedans don't sell well" curse in the 450,000 to 550,000 yuan price range. However, if the Enjoy S9 repeats the script of the Question M9, then the first place among the new forces this year may be a foregone conclusion.

06

GAC Aion

GAC Aion has been having a tough time lately, with June sales of 35,027 units, a year-on-year decrease of 22.18%, and a month-on-month decrease of 12.59%. The cumulative sales in the first half of 2024 are 177,366 units, a year-on-year decrease of 15.27%.

- Annual sales target completion rate: 25%【Commentary】

GAC Aion's recent performance is concerning, as it has experienced a year-on-year decline in both June sales and the cumulative sales for the first half of the year, which is unusual against the backdrop of double-digit high growth in the domestic new energy vehicle market.

However, GAC Aion has revealed that its first overseas factory, the Thailand Smart Eco-Factory, is about to be completed and put into production. The second-generation AION V Tyrannosaurus is also set to roll off the global production line and hit the market simultaneously, so it remains to be seen whether overseas business can bring new growth in the second half of the year.

07

NIO Inc.

NIO delivered 21,209 new vehicles in June, a year-on-year increase of 98%, setting a new record. In the first half of 2024, a total of 87,426 new vehicles were delivered, representing a year-on-year increase of 60.2%.- Yearly Sales Target Achievement Rate: 38%

【Commentary】

NIO's data for June exceeded expectations; previously, Jia Shi Pai estimated that NIO would be around 18,000 units for June, and now it has once again surpassed the 20,000-unit mark, proving that the efficiency of NIO's entire sales system has further improved.

However, NIO still faces the risk of declining gross margin per vehicle in the second quarter. They previously reduced the fees for BaaS and offered various subsidies, including oil-to-electricity subsidies, optional accessory subsidies, and display vehicle subsidies, which are equivalent to indirect discounts. Li Bin himself also stated that while NIO's sales are growing, the gross margin is falling, which still presents certain challenges.

Additionally, according to insiders, the competition among NIO's regional stores for consumers is quite fierce, with each store hoping to complete transactions and deliveries within their own region. This also indicates that there is still some pressure on internal orders and deliveries within NIO.In the third quarter, NIO will enter the Ledao L60 phase. Whether the Ledao L60 can bring NIO an increase of 10,000 vehicles per month, or even 20,000 vehicles, is quite important for NIO.

08

Leapmotor

Leapmotor's deliveries in June reached a historical high of 20,116 units, a year-on-year increase of 52.3%, and a month-on-month increase of 10.7%. The cumulative delivery volume for the first half of this year reached 86,696 units.

- The annual sales target completion rate is 34.7%.【Review】

The sales volumes of the three car manufacturers in the second tier of new car forces are very close, all around 20,000 units. However, among them, Leimao's year-on-year growth rate is the lowest, and it will be more challenging to maintain its ranking if this trend continues.

But Leimao also has a "big move". The large 6-seater SUV Leimao C16 was officially launched at the end of June, with a starting price of 155,800 yuan, and the entire series does not exceed 190,000 yuan in price. It offers both pure electric and extended-range hybrid power options, and the entire series comes with a very good standard configuration. With this price and configuration level, Leimao's ambition to increase sales volume is undoubtedly confirmed, and it is worth looking forward to whether C16 can help Leimao take the next step in sales.

09

Ji Krypton Automobile

Ji Krypton delivered 20,106 vehicles in June, a significant year-on-year increase of 89%, setting a new record for monthly deliveries. From January to June, the cumulative delivery reached 87,870 vehicles, a year-on-year growth of 106%.- Annual sales target achievement rate: 38.22%

 

【Commentary】

Currently, Zeekr's stock price has fallen from the initial public offering price of $25 per share to $18.84 per share. The sales data for June is a much-needed boost for the newly listed Zeekr, with the stock price increasing by more than 3% before the market opened on the day of the sales announcement.

 

The fact that Zeekr's delivery volume has exceeded 20,000 units signifies that Zeekr still possesses strong competitiveness in the second tier of new forces. In particular, the Zeekr 001 is the core model that has consistently supported Zeekr's sales and pricing. As for other models, including the Zeekr 007, they have not yet made a significant impact. The next likely increase in Zeekr's sales volume will probably come from the all-new SUV that shares the same platform as the 007.

 

Another source of Zeekr's sales comes from the export market. In the Central Asian market, Zeekr has fully started to operate independently, no longer selling cars through parallel exporters, which allows for better control over profit margins and pricing.Xiaomi Automobile

June Xiaomi SU7 Delivery Exceeds 10,000 Units, a Significant Increase Compared to the Previous Month. The official statement indicates that the delivery in July will continue to exceed 10,000 units.

- Since the start of deliveries in April, Xiaomi Automobile has delivered approximately 25,700 vehicles this year;

- Annual sales target completion rate: 26%.

[Commentary]Xiaomi Automobile has maintained a relatively stable delivery pace since its launch, and it still has a good momentum and traffic flow. At this rate, it seems very likely that Mr. Lei will achieve the "promise" he made at the beginning.

11

Xpeng Motors

Xpeng delivered 10,668 new vehicles in June, a year-on-year increase of 24%, and a month-on-month increase of 5%. In the first half of the year, a total of 52,028 new vehicles were delivered, a year-on-year increase of 26%.

- Among them, the Xpeng X9 delivered 1,687 units, with a cumulative delivery of 13,143 units in the first half of the year since its launch.

- Annual sales target completion rate: 18.6%

[Commentary]Xpeng Motors managed to maintain a scale of tens of thousands of vehicles in June, but the year-on-year growth compared to last year is not of great significance.

Compared to the four-digit figures of Li Auto and the two-digit figures of NIO/JiKrypton, from an outsider's perspective, Xpeng has clearly fallen behind. However, those within Xpeng and its dealers do not see it that way.

In previous conversations with individuals close to Xpeng, it was felt that the company has been holding back its energy in recent months. After Wang Fengying took over, the main focus was on resolving channel management and supply chain management issues. The vice president, who is directly responsible for Xpeng's sales, comes from a luxury brand. Currently, Xpeng's strategy is to stabilize its channels, provide sufficient rebates to maintain dealers, and also to integrate the management of regional heads and directly-operated stores, so that they can work together instead of undermining each other.

Dealers have confidence in the next two models that Xpeng will introduce, and believe that Xpeng is now listening to their suggestions, such as not establishing separate channels for MONA and not imposing so-called inventory pressure on dealers. The issues raised by these dealers to He Xiaopeng and the management have been accepted, and dealers can sense the rapid changes at Xpeng.

Therefore, it won't take long for Xpeng's sales to pick up, it all depends on whether there is a hit product. However, Jia Shi Pai believes that the chances for M03 are slim, estimating that this product will play more of a role in building momentum, and it may take until the F57 model to truly turn the situation around.Based on the cumulative sales of over 50,000 units from January to June, it seems that doubling the sales in the second half of the year and aiming for a total of 150,000 vehicles for the year is a target.

12

BAIC BluePark

June sales were 9,574 units, with a year-to-date total of 28,011 units, representing a year-on-year increase or decrease of -20.4%.

[Commentary]

Looking at these sales figures, there is still no significant improvement in the BAIC independent business segment. However, there are actually bright spots and progress within this context. The performance of Arcfox Automobiles this year has been quite commendable. Since May, it has twice entered the top ten of the new force brand sales rankings in the Chinese market on a weekly basis, which was unimaginable in the past.Lantu Automobile

In June, 5,507 vehicles were delivered, a year-on-year increase of 83%. From January to June, the cumulative sales volume reached 30,376 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 102%.

- Annual sales target completion rate: 30.38%.

[Commentary]

Although Lantu Automobile is not a large-scale company, the growth momentum indicated by the year-on-year data is quite good, which suggests that there are no significant issues with its products. The main factor that has limited sales growth in the past is the insufficient expansion of the sales and service network.However, LanTu Automobile is accelerating the expansion of its network, adding 5 LanTu Space stores and 3 full-function user centers in June alone, covering 7 cities. Without the stimulation of a brand-new model, the rapid increase in sales volume for LanTu is inseparable from the rapid expansion of the channel system.

In the third quarter, LanTu's new all-electric mid-size SUV, the LanTu Zhiyin, will be officially released. At present, it appears that the configuration is quite powerful, but whether the addition of this model can help the brand's sales volume continue to increase remains to be observed.

Jia Shi Summary:

At first glance, the June sales performance of new energy vehicle companies is excellent, but apart from BYD's annual sales target completion rate exceeding 40%, the completion rates of other brands are not very optimistic. Among them, Li Auto, NIO, Zero Run, Zeekr, and LanTu Automobile are in the second echelon, with completion rates all exceeding 30%. The next level is GAC Aion and Xiaomi Automobile, with completion rates exceeding 20%. The lowest completion rate is Xiaopeng Automobile, which is less than 20%.

The main reason for the current situation is that the expected targets set by the new force car companies are too high.Please provide the text you would like translated into English.